December 2012
Prospect Uniformed: The Mets’ Zack Wheeler in Every Minor League Jersey He’s Worn
Thanks to the New York Mets’ change in affiliation from Triple-A Buffalo to Las Vegas, MLB.com’s No. 6 overall prospect Zack Wheeler will wear a sixth pro jersey next spring. Here are the previous five, in a gallery.
A Wrap of Billy Hamilton’s Chat: His Connection to Willie Mays Hayes and Whether He Can Beat Rickey Henderson in A Race
Billy Hamilton — the fastest man in the Minor Leagues, the all-time stolen-base leader in the Minors, and the No. 1 prospect in the Reds’ system — took over the @MLBFutures Twitter account Thursday afternoon to answer questions from fellow Tweeters. I asked him about what jersey number he’ll wear in Cincinnati, and a dozen others had their queries answered, too. Below is the transcript, spelling and grammar gone uncorrected. Hamilton’s words are in bullet points; mine are in italics.
- On his goals for 2013: “my goal is to be better than I was last year then I’ll be fine”
- On the coolest part of being a pro ballplayer: “just getting to meet people u grew up watching and to be around the best people”
- On which side of the plate he’s more comfortable hitting from: “I actually feel really good from both sides”
Hamilton was strictly a right-handed hitter in high school before taking up switch-hitting in his first year as a pro. His splits in 2012 are as follows. At Double-A Pensacola: .306 versus lefties, .278 versus righties. At Class A Advanced Bakersfield: .320 versus lefties, .325 versus righties.
- On who would win a Hamilton-Rickey Henderson-Superman three-way race: “I would have to go with myself on that one”
I have a feeling Rickey would disagree.
- On if he is related to Angels slugger Josh Hamilton: “maybe on down the line lol jus kidding”
- On if he’d rather homer or triple and steal home in his first MLB at-bat: “I’ll say triple and steal home”
- On a past/present base-stealer he admires: “Delino deshields was great and he’s teaching me to be great”
When I interviewed Hamilton, he had this to say about DeShields, his former Minor League manager: “He taught me that it’s about confidence. He said, ‘Most guys get thrown out a few times and then don’t try to run for a long time. You have to have your confidence.’ If I get thrown out, I say, ‘Next time, I’m going again.’ You can’t be scared.”
- On what jersey number he hopes to wear in the Majors: “00 like Willie mays Hayes off of the movie major league”
I don’t believe this (video below) has ever happened to Hamilton, who has mainly worn “4″ and “12″ in the Minors.
- On his secret, non-baseball talent: “I’m a pretty good golfer”
- On whether he is feeling the effects of crashing into the outfield well in the AFL title game last month: “no effects after the crash I’m feeling great!!!”
- On whether he prefers Gold Star or Skyline chili in Cincinnati: “I guess Im gonna go with skyline since my buddy take me there every time I’m in Cincy”
- On which ballplayer he idolized growing up: “Rafael Furcal was my favorite player I was a big braves fan growing up”
Hamilton is listed at 6’1”, 190 pounds – Furcal at 5’8”, 190.
- On how his transition from shortstop to center field is going: “Cf is coming along pretty good I have a lot to learn but I’m getting it”
Hamilton was drafted as an infielder in 2009. He committed 39 errors at shortstop in 2011, and 31 at shortstop in 2012. … You know who else played center field, right?
Prospect Flashback: Picturing B.J. Upton, A Triple-A @DurhamBulls Shortstop, Before He Became A #Braves Outfielder
Welcome to a new series on the blog. We’re calling this one, “Prospect Flashback.” It’s very simple: At least once a week you will be treated to an archived photo of a Minor League prospect-turned-Major League stud. Click here for past editions.
Player: B.J. Upton (MiLB career stats)
Date: April 24, 2006
Caption: Upton, the second overall pick in the 2002 Draft, moved from the shortstop position not long after committing 53 errors there in 2005 and 28 more miscues in 2006 with the Durham Bulls.
Photographer: Tony Farlow/MiLB.com
Repertoires Revealed: Traded Pitching Prospects Syndergaard, Odorizzi, Meyer and Bauer
Ci
Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (from Blue Jays to Mets)
Headline: Mets added d’Arnaud, Syndergaard (12/17)
Team in 2013: Class A Advanced St. Lucie (FSL)
Repertoire: Four pitches
- Four-seam fastball — 94-98 mph — A plus pitch, but is it too straight?
- Two-seam fastball — 94-95 mph — Work-in-progress
- Curveball — 74-79 mph — Improved, but still average
- Circle-changeup — 84-88 mph — Work-in-progress
Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi (from Royals to Rays)
Headline: Royals send top prospects to Rays (12/10)
Team in 2013: Triple-A Durham (IL) / Tampa Bay
Repertoire: Four pitches
- Four-seam fastball — 90-96 mph — Not always plus, control is key
- Changeup — 80-83 mph — Work-in-progress
- Curveball — 75 mph — Average at this point
- Slider — 82-85 mph — Average at this point
Pitcher: Alex Meyer (from Nationals to Twins)
Headline: Top prospect Meyer shipped to Twins (11/29)
Team in 2013: Double-A New Britain
Repertoire: Three pitches
- No-seam fastball — 93-98 mph — Plus moving fastball, he plans to add straighter variety
- Knuckle-curveball — 83-86 mph — Not always plus, control is key
- Circle-changeup –87-90 mph — Work-in-progress, this offering’s development could decide his future role
Pitcher: Trevor Bauer (from D-backs to Indians)
Headline: Bauer sent to Tribe in three-team deal (12/11/12)
Team in 2013: Triple-A Columbus (IL) / Cleveland
Repertoire: Eight pitches
- Four-seam fastball — 92-plus mph — Can be a plus pitch, location is key (he likes to pitch up in the zone)
- Changeups 1 — 80-84 mph — Can be a plus pitch, it cuts
- Changeup 2 — 76-81 mph — Can be a plus pitch, it runs
- Curveball — 76-81 mph — Can be a plus pitch when break is right, tight
- Dot slider — 84-86 mph — Can be a plus pitch, big breaker
- Circle slider — 84 mph — A solid pitch, more of a cutter
- Reverse slider — 88-91 mph — His invention, average offering
- Splitter — 86-88 mph — Work-in-progress
Prospect Flashback: Picturing Justin Upton of The Double-A @Mobile_ BayBears Before He Became A Sought-after Slugger
Welcome to a new series on the blog. We’re calling this one, “Prospect Flashback.” It’s very simple: At least once a week you will be treated to an archived photo of a Minor League prospect-turned-Major League stud. Leave your feedback in the comment section.
Player: Justin Upton (MiLB career stats)
Date: June 4, 2007
Caption: Upton, the first overall pick in the 2005 Draft, spent his second Minor League season at Class A Advanced Visalia and Double-A Mobile. in 71 games for the BayBears, he batted .309 and hit 13 home runs.
Photographer: Jerry Hale/MiLB.com
Prospect Flashback: Picturing Josh Hamilton, A Rays Minor Leaguer Long Before He Became An Angel
Welcome to a new series on the blog. We’re calling this one, “Prospect Flashback.” It’s very simple: At least once a week you will be treated to an archived photo of a Minor League prospect-turned-Major League stud. Leave your feedback in the comment section.
Player: Josh Hamilton (MiLB career stats)
Date: July 6, 2006
Caption: Hamilton, a 1999 draft pick of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays plays in his first full game for the New York-Penn League Hudson Valley Reneagades. He has been out of baseball for years due to injuries and substance abuse. Here he breaks his cracked bat after hitting a pop-fly.
Photographer: Joy R. Absalon/MiLB.com
Joy R. Absalon/MiLB.com
Squeezed Out … of The Outfield: Are Angels, Red Sox, Reds and Giants Bridging to/Blocking Prospects?
Josh Hamilton (Danny Wild/MiLB.com)
When word broke of the Angels swooping in and signing former Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton this hour, his soon-to-be-official teammates in Los Angeles were Tweeting to their heart’s content. A small sampling:
- @Trouty20 (CF Mike Trout): “Wow”
- @NickMaronde (LHP Nick Maronde): “Glad I don’t have to face the
@Angels lineup!#Halonation“ - @GRichards26 (RHP Garrett Richards): “I am so excited for this year!!! Welcome
@thejoshhamilton!!!” - @CCron24 (1B C.J. Cron): “Welcome the newest member of the Halo family
@thejoshhamilton. Congrats!”
All pretty standard stuff, though it’s easy to appreciate Trout’s genuine surprise.
Personally, I was struck by a Tweet from Randal Grichuk, however. Remember him? He’s the guy the Halos drafted a slot ahead of Trout in 2009 (even though they rated Trout ahead of him). Here is what Grichuk sent out from his social media account (@RGrich15): “Wow phone will not stop going off about the Angels signing@thejoshhamilton !!! No team better than the @Angels #ALWest“.
Either Grichuk is just the ultimate team-first guy or he is so much a cliche-clenching ballplayer that he is taking it one day at a time and not worrying about whether Hamilton just limited his Major League chances in the coming couple years.
Whatever the case, if you’ve been reading this blog since day one or are just stumbling upon it this afternoon, you probably know PROSPECTive has a different mindset about such things. There’s plenty of room for hypotheticals here. And, here and now, I wonder aloud how teams’ offseason splashes could affect their pools of prospects. We’ll start this with the outfielders. (Look for infielders and pitchers sometime next week.)
Bryce Brentz (Ken Jancef/MiLB.com)
RED SOX
MLB veterans: Jonny Gomes (signed through 2014), Shane Victorino (through ’15)
MiLB prospects: Bryce Brentz (has played AAA ball), Jackie Bradley (AA), Brandon Jacobs (A)
Briding to/Blocking: This is clearly a blocking of Brentz, who depending upon who you ask is either Major League-ready of very close to it. This is a bridging to of Bradley, who is developing into a on-base machine/strong defender in center. Victorino can shift to a corner and Jacoby Ellsbury will likely be gone by the time of Bradley’s first callup. Jacobs, while talented, is far enough away that he doesn’t have to worry quite yet.
***
REDS
MLB veterans: Ryan Ludwick (signed through 2014,) Shin-Soo Choo (traded for, signed through ’13)
MiLB prospects: Billy Hamilton (has played AA ball), Ryan LaMarre (AA)
Briding to/Blocking: This is a clear bridging to, and a smart one. Cincinnati will count on Choo to man center field next spring, then watch him leave and have either Hamilton or LaMarre, both potential leadoff men who can steal bases and cover a lot of grass in the outfield, replace him ably in the lineup. Hamilton is likely to get the gig in ’14, meaning LaMarre would be a nice fourth outfield option behind Ludwick and Jay Bruce.
***
Gary Brown (Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com)
GIANTS:
MLB veterans: Angel Pagan (signed through 2016), Andres Torres (signed through ’13)
MiLB prospects: Gary Brown (has played AA ball)
Briding to/Blocking: Another bridging to, even if this case isn’t as obvious. Yes, the Giants gave Pagan too many years (four) and dollars (40 million), but he can move to left when Brown is ready for big league ball in 2014. Brown has similar skills (leadoff ability, gap power, a lot of range in the outfield) and is still looked at as an impact player in the Giants organization despite his less-than-spectacular season at Double-A this year.
***
ANGELS
MLB veterans: Josh Hamilton (signed through 2017)
MiLB prospects: Kole Calhoun (has played AAA ball), Travis Witherspoon (AA) and Randal Grichuk (A)
Analysis: With Mike Trout, Peter Bourjos, Vernon Wells, Hamilton and Mark Trumbo (who can also play the infield) all in the mix, I wouldn’t want to be a fringe Angels outfield prospect in the next five years. Calhoun is probably a bench player and Witherspoon is a question mark at this point, while many believe Grichuk can develop into a starter so long as he stays healthy. But it’s hard to imagine him breaking into this outfield anytime in the next couple years. Score this one a blocking.
Chat No. 2 Wrap: Trade Reactions, Starling vs. Arcia, Plus Other Prospect Stuff
Last Saturday, I wrote this blog post, soliciting prospects-related questions from you. I’m writing this post here and now to fulfill my end of the bargain and answer those questions as best as I can. Before we get to the Qs and As, I would like to thank you for participating — or, for just reading along — and also encourage you to use the comment section below in the future. As I wrote in this post (the first in this blog’s now 77-day history), this platform is for you. So if you want to see more chats like this one (or an actual-live chat in which we are conversing real-time) or have other ideas, please let me know. Without further adieu…
Oswaldo Arcia (Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com)
Ryan Ricotta: Who is the better prospect/has higher upside: Bubba Starling or Oswaldo Arcia?
Andrew: Ryan, Starling (now the Royals’ No. 1 prospect) has a higher overall ceiling than Arcia (the Twins’ seventh-ranked farmhand), but it’s not quite that simple. For one, we have larger sample sizes of Arcia — he has played parts of five seasons in the Minors versus Starling who finally completed his first Short-Season in 2012. Therefore, we know a lot more about Arcia. He has, for example, proven he can hit Double-A pitching. Starling hasn’t. That should explain why Starling has greater potential but Arcia has a greater chance at realizing his. And that’s as a hitter. As a defender, there’s less debate: Arcia will top out as an average corner outfielder while Starling is already an outstanding center fielder. If you’re asking me which player I would in my organization, I’d take Starling if only because his talent is too great to pass up.
Charlie Drysdale: Which 2012 Tulsa Driller do you see having a better season in 2013, Nolan Arenado or Corey Dickerson?
Andrew: Interesting question, Charlie. If you followed the Drillers in 2012, you already know that Arenado was solid but not spectacular in the way that his ’11 season in the Minors and Arizona Fall League suggested he might be. Dickerson, meanwhile, continued his quick ascension in the Rockies’ system. With that said, my educated guess would be that Arenado has the better season in ’13. His ability to make contact at all costs, plus his cerebral approach at the plate will give him a better shot against the advanced pitching he will face at Triple-A. I know less of the approach used by Dickerson, who will also play for the Pacific Coast League’s Colorado Springs Sky Sox for the first time next spring, but it’s obvious that he is more prone to striking out. Both are well equipped to produce, but my money is on Arenado. I would not be at all surprised to see him jump back into the conversation of best Minor League hitter.
Pierre: Andrew, who’s going to be the best out of Drew Smyly, A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily or W.Y. Chen?
Andrew: This is actually a very easy choice for me, Pierre. I firmly believe Smyly is and will continue to be the best of the quartet you mention. As long as he can stay healthy, Smyly is the one of the four that, in my mind, can be a No. 2 starter in a good Major League rotation. When pitching their best, the other three, are no more than No. 3s. I have seen (and written about) Griffin and Straily the most of these hurlers and that helps inform my opinion here: Griffin will be challenged to repeat his 2012 results (2.82 ERA in the Minors, 3.06 in the Majors) given his lack of a truly plus offering; he will always need to be mixing his pitches well to stay a mental step ahead of hitters. And Straily led the Minors in strikeouts but then found out that fanning Major Leaguers is a different task altogether. He has an excellent slider and a strong changeup, but he consistently leaves his fastball up in the zone, which is hard to get away with in the Majors. I know less of Chen but simply based on age, past numbers and future projections, Smyly comes out well ahead.
Trevor Bauer (Amy Beck/Reno Aces).
Anonymous: How do you evaluate the most recent trades: Myers and Odorizzi to Tampa Bay and Bauer to Cleveland?
Andrew: Well, this question would fall under this blog’s While You and I Were Out category. I was not scheduled to work the last four days and here is what I (and perhaps you, missed):
Our story Sunday: Royals send top prospects to Rays
My take: I understand why Kansas City felt it had to acquire starting pitching, but I completely disagree with how they went about it, yielding three top prospects (and a solid fourth) whom Tampa can control contractually for six years. I’m also on record as a strong believer in the bat of outfielder Wil Myers, who is the best player going to the Rays. Jake Odorizzi will be better than Wade Davis, too. And it seemed like the Royals just threw Mike Mongtomery into the deal. I’m not a believer in Montgomery, but he has the best pure stuff of any pitcher in the trade and is yet another example of KC underselling on the value of its own farmhands.
Our story Tuesday: Bauer sent to Tribe in three-team deal
My take: This deal didn’t involve as many elite-level prospects and wasn’t as lopsided, but it also leaves me wondering about one team’s decision. No matter how highly the D-backs rated Didi Gregorius, the shortstop prospect they’re getting from the Reds, and how much they have soured on pitcher Trevor Bauer, the pitching prospect they’re sending to the Indians, this trade makes little to no sense. It boils down to trading baseball’s No. 5 prospect (Bauer) for the No. 5 prospect in Cincinnati’s system (Gregorius). I realize Arizona was shortstop-starved, but will Gregorius hit that much more than in-house option Cliff Pennington, who is also a very good defender? I’m not so sure.
If Arizona was set on 1) getting a shortstop, 2) unloading Bauer and 3) involving three clubs, I would have explored this one a week or so ago:
D-backs get: Mike Olt (3B from TEX), Luis Sardinas (SS from TEX), Wil Myers (OF from KC), Christian Colon (SS from KC), Mike Montgomery (SP from KC)
Royals get: Trevor Bauer (SP from ARI), Martin Perez (SP from TEX)
Rangers get: Justin Upton (OF from ARI)
What do you think?
Chat No. 2: A Call for Reader Questions
Got Dylan Bundy questions? (Tony Farlow/MiLB.com)
One month ago, on Nov. 7, we — you all and I — worked together on this blog’s first online chat (link here). All indications are that it turned out pretty well. And with so much happening over the past month (trades involving prospects, Rule 5 Draft, etc.) and because we are one month closer to Opening Day 2013, I’m sure there are some more lingering questions out there. So let’s hear them. As a reminder, this is how it will all work:
Here’s my pledge: Send me your prospects-related questions anytime between now, 10:30 a.m. ET on Saturday (Dec. 8), and 2 p.m. ET next Wednesday (Dec. 12), and I promise to fully answer each and every one of them. They will appear in a wrap-up post (that will look like this) before 6 p.m. ET next Wednesday.
There are three ways to send in your queries and a piece of identifying info (first name, hometown or something else):
1) Simply post a comment at the bottom of this post
2) Email me at andrew.pentis@mlb.com
3) Tweet at me on @andrewmilb
So send along those questions!
With Nats’ Meyer And Phils’ May In Tow, What Twins’ Rotation Could Look Like … in 2015
These are the facts as I know them. Eight days ago, the Minnesota Twins’ had just three starting pitchers on their Major League depth chart. The Twins also didn’t have a single ready-made option in the Minor Leagues — no one who had pitched consistently enough at Triple-A to move on up without first asking questions.
Eight days later — and without a significant free-agent signing in between — the Twins have acquired three starters in two trades. The headlines:
Top prospect Meyer shipped to Twins — 11/29/12
Twins add Phils’ May to prospect haul — 12/06/12
Trevor May at Double-A Reading in 2012 (David Monseur/MiLB.com)
The one-week transformation from pitching-poor falls under my purview — and interests me — because all three are young, controllable assets and two are what we around here call top prospects. Alex Meyer was No. 2 in the Nationals’ system, and Trevor May was No. 2 in the Phils’; they are now the Twins’ third- and fifth-ranked farmhands by MLB.com’s standard. (The third pitcher, another twenty-something right-hander in Vance Worley, has already pitched in the Majors and pitched well.)
With that said and set up, here is what the Twins’ five-man rotation could like in 2015. As you can see, it could be quite formidable (and long-lasting, as none of the pitchers below can become a free agent before 2018).
1. Alex Meyer: Has two potentially wipeout pitches and is the one among the bunch with ace potential. Likely to start ’13 at Double-A New Britain.
2. Trevor May: A peg below Meyer, has a fastball-curveball combo that is very good, just not as good. Likely to start ’13 a step ahead, Triple-A Rochester.
3 .Scott Diamond: Proven commodity out of my purview.
4. Vance Worley: Proven commodity (as long as he can stay healthy) out of my purview.
5a. Liam Hendriks: Bounced between Rochester and Minnesota in ’12, is still learning how to mix his strong five pitches. Will be a solid back-end guy deeper into his 20s.
5b. Kyle Gibson: Once a more high-profile prospect (before undergoing elbow surgery), Gibson should be entrenched two seasons from now. Scouts differ on his ceiling, but he should slot in nicely here.
5c-g: 2011 first-round pick Hudson Boyd and 2012 first-round pick Jose Berrios won’t truly arrive before ’16. Right-handers Matthew Summers and Madison Boer could end up as middle relievers. And then there’s Cole De Vries, who will find a job harder to come by in the years ahead.
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