November 2012

Three Reasons Why Alex Meyer Is A Huge Haul for The Twins

For all the nuts and bolts of Thursday’s Alex Meyer-for-Denard Span trade, read this article, which I wrote late in the afternoon for MiLB.com.

For all the analysis and educated opinions I didn’t fit into that piece, read … well … what is below: three reasons why Meyer was a huge one-man haul for the Twins (OK, aside from the fact that he stands 6-foot-9, 230 pounds).

Jeff Robertson/AP

Jeff Robertson/AP

  1. The tangibles: The Twins don’t produce starting pitchers with this kind of repertoire on their own. For the full details of Meyer’s three-pitch mix, check out the “Prospect Pitch” I interviewed Meyer for last September. Here is the short version of it: a no-seam fastball between 93 and 98 mph that is consistent movement-oriented pitch; a spike curveball between 83 mph and 89 mph that is nasty when commanded; a changeup between 87 and 90 mph that is merely average at this point. It will be — and has already been — argued by some baseball writers, wonks that Meyer has not proven that he can be a Major League starter as opposed to a Major League reliever, but with those pitches and his makeup, I find it much more likely that he remains in a five-man rotation. About that makeup…
  2. The intangibles: I interviewed Meyer twice in one July week this year (when he won his Class A Advanced debut; when he struck out nine over six scoreless innings in his first post-Futures Game outing) and, in each of my dealings with him, he has struck me as the kind of confident kid that is going to excel in Majors no matter what. Now I’m not saying that every reporter-friendly right-hander is destined for big league success (Gerrit Cole, for one, is an unimpressive interviewee but looks like the Pirates’ next ace, while the ever-engaging Trevor Bauer struggled in the bigs this year), but in my four seasons covering baseball (two at MLB.com and two here at MiLB.com), I have noticed that the ballplayers who can be themselves, know themselves and are therefore better, more resilient ballplayers than their peers. When I think of this, I picture the affable Adam Wainwright doing a broadcast interview on the top step of his dugout … during a World Series game … on the day before he was due to pitch. Come to think of it, the tall, lanky Wainwright has a similar demeanor and repertoire to Meyer. Maybe the former is a good comp for the latter going forward.
  3. The replacements: I get it, Denard Span is a good player in the prime of his career and only (only?) due $21 million over the next three seasons. I get it. I get it. I get it. But if I am the Twins, I make this deal anyway, and I’m tickled to do it. My third and final reason why: They have about as much young outfield depth as an MLB org could ask for. In addition to center field replacement Ben Revere and current corner outfield options Josh Willingham and Chris Parmelee, Minnesota has three prospects that are a full season in the Minors or less away from the Majors: Aaron Hicks, who is a strong bet to be as good or better than Span, in center and Joe Benson and Oswaldo Arcia manning the corners. (It could also be said that, if all goes well, Meyer will be emerging as the Twins’ ace just as 2012 first-round draftee Byron Buxton, another multi-skilled center fielder, is earning his first big league callup.) Hicks, Benson and Arcia are all among the Twins’ top 10 prospects, and they helped the org to move on without Span.

For a diverging perspective on the Meyer-for-Span swap, read this. I don’t agree with all of it. But there is some sound reasoning. See what you think. Let me know in the comment section.

Lost and Found: D-backs Prospect Chase Anderson

Editor’s note: Lost and Found is an offseason series in which one underrated prospect from each of the 30 MLB clubs will be discussed in a short, snappy post.

Lost: A ninth-round pick out of the University of Oklahoma in 2009, Chase Anderson impressed in his first two pro seasons, splitting his time between the bullpen and the rotation. Then he struggled in three starts in 2011 before missing the remainder of the year to rest a strained flexor in his throwing elbow.

Found: Anderson avoided surgery on his pitching arm and, aside from another month of rest starting last May, put together the best campaign of his four-year career. (In his second start back, on April 23, he fanned 10 over seven four-hit, scoreless innings.)

2012: 2.86 ERA — 21 G — 21 GS — 104 IP — 97-to-25 K-BB — .238 OPP .AVG at Double-A Mobile

So Anderson was lost, now he is found. Now, about the D-backs’ returns: Anderson, who turns 25 on Friday, throws an outstanding changeup and a very good sinker — and those two pitches are enough to put him in the back end of a five-man rotation. If he develops his breaking pitches — and stays healthy, of course — we could be looking at a very solid No. 3 starter. Given his successful run through the AFL (3.47 ERA in six starts, 26 K in 23 1/3 IP), Anderson is likely to break big league camp with the Triple-A Reno Aces but will be at or near the top of the list to get the call to Arizona in 2013.

(Jordan Megenhardt/MiLB.com)

Which Pitching Prospects Will Wil (Myers) Yield for The Royals?

Let’s keep this all very simple and put it in bullet-form. According to a report Friday from the venerable Jeff Passan:

  • the Royals are willing to trade their top prospect — and, perhaps, baseball’s top prospect — Wil Myers
  • the Royals will seek young, front-line starting pitching in any deal for Myers
  • the Royals have discussed such a swap with the Rays, the D-backs, the A’s and the Mariners

(Minda Hass)

As much as it might seem a surprise for a down-and-out, on-its-way-back team to be “dangling” or “shopping” such an impactful slugger with zero Major League service time, this news should not, in fact, come as a surprise. Let’s stay simple and explain why:

  • the Royals appear set with their outfield to begin 2013 — and unwilling to make room for Myers (he could force the issue with a big Spring Training)
  • the Royals appear set with an offensive nucleus of young sluggers (which includes the names Butler, Gordon, Moustakas, Hosmer, Perez — not Myers)
  • the Royals do not appear set with their starting rotation (in no small part because prospects Mike Montgomery, John Lamb and Chris Dwyer have stalled in the Minors)

Which brings us to the Rays, the D-backs, the A’s and the Mariners. What Passan doesn’t tell us, I will. What he doesn’t tell us, of course, is which pitching prospects Kansas City might be targeting from each of these four potential trading partners. Let’s take them one at a time:

The Rays

  • Major League rotation: James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb/Jeff Niemman
  • Expendable prospects: Chris Archer (AAA), Alex Torres (AAA), Alex Colome (AAA), Enny Romero (High-A), Felipe Rivero (A), Taylor Guerrieri and Blake Snell (Low-A)
  • The proposal for Myers: Chris Archer and Taylor Guerrieri for Myers
  • Why it Wil/won’t work: The Rays will be loathe to part with two elite hurlers and may insist on an Archer-and-anybody-but-Guerrieri package, but including their 2011 first-round draftee probably puts them ahead in the race to land Myers. And Tampa Bay might overpay (in its mind) to get a can’t-miss slugger that it can control contractually for the next six years. … Don’t discount Romero or Rivero, who like Guerrieri are far away from the Majors, but have very live arms.

The D-backs

  • Major League rotation: Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Daniel Hudson, Wade Miley, Pat Corbin/Tyler Skaggs
  • Expendable prospects: Trevor Bauer (AAA), David Holmberg (AA), Anthony Meo (High-A), Archie Bradley (A)
  • The proposal for Myers: Trevor Bauer, David Holmberg and Anthony Meo for Myers and SS/2B prospect Christian Colon
  • Why it Wil/won’t work: We’ve seen national reports that — before they were shot down — depicted the D-backs making and taking calls on Trevor Bauer. So this could be the trade makes the most sense: Arizona trades a pitcher it undervalues to Kansas City for a slugger it undervalues. Has there ever been a prospects-only deal that could also be a change-of-scenery-needed swap for both players? … I expanded my proposal above to include two more Arizona hurlers because we know that the D-backs are starving for a shortstop and that the Royals’ Colon, while not a plus defender at the position, can hit enough to play there. (And Colon is obviously blocked in K.C. by Alcides Escobar.)

The A’s

  • Major League rotation: Brett Anderson, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, Bartolo Colon/Brandon McCarthy (free agent)
  • Expendable prospects: Dan Straily (AAA), Brad Peacock (AAA), Sonny Gray (AA), A.J. Cole (High-A)
  • The proposal for Myers: Dan Straily and Brad Peacock for Myers
  • Why it Wil/won’t work: What do Billy Beane and Co. in Oakland have going for them? They may be the lone club of the four that can offer Dayton Moore two Major League-ready, top-of-the-rotation pitchers. The Royals could insist on the more-proven A.J. Griffin or the higher-ceiling Cole, but it’s hard to imagine them not being at least instrigued by a Straily-Peacock combo. … One flaw in this proposal is really two: Peacock, for all of his stuff, had a 6.01ERA at Triple-A this year, and it would behoove GM Moore to wonder if he is too much like another exiled Athletic right-hander: Vin Mazzaro.

The Mariners

  • Major League rotation: Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Hisashi Iwakuma, Blake Beavan, Erasmo Ramirez
  • Expendable prospects: Danny Hultzen (AAA), Taijuan Walker (AA), James Paxton (AA), Brandon Maurer (AA), Jordon Shipers (A)
  • The proposal for Myers: Danny Hultzen and Jordan Shipers for Myers
  • Why it Wil/won’t work: Of the four, this deal has the most obstacles to getting done. The Mariners will offer Danny Hultzen, the Royals will want Taijuan Walker, and the Mariners will not want to counter with the logical next best thing: Hultzen AND James Paxton. And I don’t blame them. The M’s MLB rotation is thin, and all three members of the Hultzen-Walker-Paxton trio will probably be needed in Seattle by 2014. Pulling off this transaction would be as gutsy as that Michael Pineda-for-Jesus Montero memory of last offseason.

(Colorado Springs Sky Sox)

Which Prospects Will Be Debuting Next, Not-so-distant Opening Day?

Here is how far we are from Major League Baseball’s Opening Night:

  • 4 months, 10 days
  • 18 weeks
  • 130 days
  • 3,120 hours
  • 187,200 minutes
  • 11,232,000 seconds

So, yeah, we’ve got some time. But I can’t wait. Can you?

I’m already wondering which members of MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects will make their first Opening Day roster next spring. Here are some guys you’d think would be in the mix, depending of course on injuries/trades/free-agency signings that will happen over the next 11,232,000 (OK, make that 11,231,999) seconds. As we do in our annual prospects-ready-for-the-show piece, which I wrote last year, we are including players who have made their MLB debut but haven’t accrued enough service time to lose their status as a prospect. The Minor Leaguers below with zero MLB service time are in italics.

  1. SS Jurickson Profar — Rangers
  2. SP Dylan Bundy — Orioles
  3. OF Wil Myers — Royals
  4. SP Trevor Bauer — D-backs
  5. SP Zack Wheeler — Mets
  6. SP Gerrit Cole — Pirates
  7. SP Tyler Skaggs — D-backs
  8. IF/OF Mike Olt — Rangers
  9. SP Shelby Miller — Cardinals
  10. SP Julio Teheran — Braves
  11. IF Nick Franklin — Mariners
  12. SP Jake Odorizzi — Royals
  13. SP Martin Perez — Rangers
  14. SP Tony Cingrani — Reds
  15. SP Casey Kelly — Padres
  16. OF Brett Jackson — Cubs
  17. 3B Jedd Gyorko — Padres
  18. OF Bryce Brentz — Red Sox
  19. SP Jarred Cosart — Astros
  20. SP Dan Straily — A’s
  21. SP Chris Archer — Rays
  22. SP Tyler Thornburg — Brewers
  23. SP Wily Peralta — Brewers
  24. SP Jeurys Familia — Mets
  25. IF Grant Green — A’s

Twenty-five top prospects (eight of them with 0.00 MLB service time) could begin next April in the Majors … so what? Why am I bring this up now 11,231,999 (OK, make that 11,231,998) seconds before it matters?

Here’s why: When I wrote last year’s prospects-ready-for-the-show piece, we included a crop of nine ballplayers who were selected to Opening Day rosters — nine. (And that was including guys like Drew Smyly and Drew Pomeranz, who were awarded rotation spots but didn’t officially make the Opening Day club because it didn’t need a No. 5 starting pitcher to begin the season.)

Yep, just nine. That’s 16 more than the 25 candidates I have above. And while a bunch of them won’t make the jump right away (Jurickson Profar and Dylan Bundy will very likely get more seasoning at the Minors’ higher levels), I would argue that at least 17 of the guys above are strong bets to do so. Here would be my most-likely-to-get-the-call 17:

  1. OF Wil Myers — Royals
  2. SP Trevor Bauer — D-backs
  3. SP Zack Wheeler — Mets
  4. SP Tyler Skaggs — D-backs
  5. IF/OF Mike Olt — Rangers
  6. SP Shelby Miller — Cardinals
  7. SP Julio Teheran — Braves
  8. SP Jake Odorizzi — Royals
  9. SP Martin Perez — Rangers
  10. OF Brett Jackson — Cubs
  11. 3B Jedd Gyorko — Padres
  12. SP Jarred Cosart — Astros
  13. SP Dan Straily — A’s
  14. SP Chris Archer — Rays
  15. SP Tyler Thornburg — Brewers
  16. SP Wily Peralta — Brewers
  17. IF Grant Green — A’s

So 17 is still quite a bit more than nine.

And while we’re at it, I’d like to review how I predicted the seasons of the nine Opening Day prospects in 2011. All the results (and statistics) are in, so I’ll let you decide for yourself how accurate my best-versus-worst-case-scenario forecast played out in reality. Direct from the article:

Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Best Case: MLB.com’s No. 1 prospect begins and ends the season as the Majors’ best No. 4 starter in the Majors’ best rotation. The lefty proves that his seven innings of two-hit ball opposite the Texas Rangers in the 2011 American League Division Series was merely a preview. He receives most of the AL Rookie of the Year votes and even steals a few in the Cy Young Award race from teammates David Price and Jeremy Hellickson. They forgive him.
Worst Case: Moore’s fastball straightens out, allowing batters to ignore his unhittable curveball. The 22-year-old hits a wall, is replaced on the staff by Wade Davis and finds himself back at Triple-A Durham looking for answers. He reaches his innings limit, in the range of 175, before he figures things out in time to help the Rays toward another postseason push.

Jesus Montero, C, Seattle Mariners
Best Case: MLB.com’s No. 12 prospect sprays the ball all over the field from day one, making M’s fans forget Michael Pineda (the pitcher he was traded for) and remember designated hitter Edgar Martinez (the slugger he emulates with every swing). Montero’s .328/.406/.590 marks in 19 games as a Yankee in 2011 descend slightly in 2012 because of two inevitable variables: Playing at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field and without much support in the lineup. But Seattle couldn’t be happier with its offseason acquisition, especially because Montero, 22, stays healthy and behind home plate.
Worst Case: Montero struggles with the bat in his new environs and is shuttled back and forth between the catcher and designated hitter roles, leaving him — and his starting pitchers — in a tailspin. Questions about attitude and work ethic that were raised behind the scenes in New York are asked front and center in Seattle. Oh, and Pineda exits the 15-day disabled list and approaches 20 wins for the Yanks as buyer’s remorse sets in.

Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds
Best Case: MLB.com’s No. 14 prospect shows why former fellow Reds catching prospect Yasmani Grandal was expendable in the Mat Latos trade. Plugged into a lineup featuring Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce, Mesoraco feels little pressure to produce … so he does. Many of his would-be two-baggers at Triple-A Louisville become home runs at Great American Ballpark. By July, the 23-year-old assumes full-time catching duties, relegating incumbent Ryan Hanigan to a backup role. He still receives plenty of days off as manager Dusty Baker looks to preserve his backstop of the future for the future.
Worst Case: Splitting time behind home plate stunts Mesoraco’s growth defensively. Plus with too many days between starts, he sputters offensively. Baker sees the hitter who batted .180 in his first 18 big league games rather than the hitter who batted .289 in his last 120 Minor League contests. Mesoraco stays in the bigs, contributes occasionally on a playoff team (remember, there are two Wild Card teams) but fails to emerge in the fashion many Cincinnati fans expected.

Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Colorado Rockies
Best Case: MLB.com’s No. 24 prospect wins more games than the man he was traded for (Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians) despite working half the time from his home office (Coors Field). His nasty curveball helps his cause. He dominates National League West lineups in his first go-around through the division and stays ahead of the competition until he reaches a career-high 150 innings. He and Moore make sure pitchers sweep the two leagues’ Rookie of the Year honors.
Worst Case: The 6-foot-5-inch, 240-pound hurler spends more time on the disabled list than on the mound. (He missed 11 days in Spring Training due to a “strained right glute muscle.”) When his health returns, his command does not. Left-handed hitters still don’t have a prayer against him, but righties are timing his fastball and doing enough with his curve to get into Colorado’s bullpen by the fifth and sixth innings of his many so-so starts. The Rox still have a top-of-the-rotation anchor for years to come, but the club’s decision-makers regret not handing his roster spot to a right-hander: Tyler Chatwood or Guillermo Moscoso.

Yonder Alonso, 1B, San Diego Padres
Best Case: MLB.com’s No. 38 prospect does what Anthony Rizzo could not: Bat .300 at Petco Park. He collects twice as many doubles as he does homers — and surprising some, eclipses 20 in the latter category — while becoming the best RBI man on a team sorely lacking RBI men. His Rookie of the Year campaign falls just short, but an MVP award in future years seems possible, if not probable.
Worst Case: Alonso does what Anthony Rizzo could not: Bat .280 at Petco Park. But his sub-.450 slugging percentage leaves Padres exec Josh Byrnes and company wondering just how valuable a singles-hitting, average-fielding first baseman can be. Friars fans hoping for the next best Adrian Gonzalez are left with a player sharing instead the worst qualities of alumni Wally Joyner and Ryan Klesko.

Randall Delgado, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Best Case: MLB.com’s No. 41 prospect pitches so well in his first three or four starts that when veteran Tim Hudson returns from injury, the Braves’ front office has to make a move and deals from its greatest position of depth. At 22, the Panamanian officially arrives. While he doesn’t have quite the ace potential of the man he bested in March, MLB.com No. 4 prospect Julio Teheran, Delgado shows off improved command and less susceptibility to the longball. He approaches 200 innings with ease, aiding Atlanta toward an National League East Division title.
Worst Case: Delgado’s Spring Training struggles carry over into the season. He takes the ball three times before Hudson’s expected return boots him back to Gwinnett, where he completes his first full season at Triple-A. The Braves, teeming with starting pitching, are no worse for the wear and neither is Delgado, who refines his game until he’s called back to help the club (perhaps as a reliever) coast into the postseason. The only possible regret is not giving those three April starts to Teheran, who unlike Delgado, could have used the opportunity as a springboard to sustained success.

Wilin Rosario, C, Colorado Rockies
Best Case: MLB.com’s No. 63 prospect begins the season backing up veteran Ramon Hernandez but is thrust into an everyday role — or nearly everyday role, for he is a catcher — when Rox manager Jim Tracy realizes he can ill-afford to write out a lineup without Rosario’s name on it. His gaudy Spring Training stats – the numbers that allowed him to force his way onto the Opening Day roster — taper off considerably, but he’s a complementary slugger to the Troy Tulowitzi-Carlos Gonzalez duo at Coors Field. Though he doesn’t have Hernandez’s experience behind home plate, he is helped by his familiarity with fellow first-year big leaguer Pomeranz (above) and fellow Dominican Juan Nicasio. He learns the rest as he goes along.
Worst Case: Those gaudy Spring Training stats? They prove to be a virtual Arizona mirage. Rosario hovers just above the Mendoza Line — he batted .204 in his first 16 big league games in 2011 — and the defensive flaws Tracy thought were fixed reappear as the games start to count. Rosario plays a game or two a week, pinch-hits occasionally but his development is disturbed. The 23-year-old is sent to nearby Colorado Springs, where he should have been on April 1.

Drew Smyly, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Best Case: MLB.com’s No. 82 prospect makes 30-plus starts and records a sub-4.00 ERA as the lone lefty in the Tigers’ able stable of hurlers. His cutter cuts, his curveball curves and an impressive differential between his fastball and changeup helps keep hitters off balance. Thanks to his presence in an already strong Detroit rotation — and the offseason addition of one Prince Fielder — the AL Central is the first division to crown its winner.
Worst Case: Like his first pro season in 2011 split between Class A Advanced Lakeland and Double-A Erie, Smyly throws strikes. Lots of strikes. Without Verlander- or even Scherzer-type stuff, however, Smyly doesn’t get away with much, lengthening his learning curve. Whether it’s because he gets hit around, or worse, his old elbow injuries resurface, the 22-year-old finds himself at Triple-A Toledo before his 23rd birthday in June. Detroit lives to regret not picking runners-up Duane Below, Andy Oliver or Jacob Turner to round out the rotation.

Addison Reed, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Best Case: MLB.com’s No. 99 prospect begins the 2012 season how he finished 2011: By blazing fastballs and breaking sliders past big league hitters. The 23-year-old right-hander who earned four separate promotions last year earns a fifth by June when first-year skipper Robin Ventura picks the closer he wants to grow old with. Reed doesn’t disappoint, saving the few games the middling Sox are in a position to win.
Worst Case: Reed learns that striking out Major Leaguers is more difficult than their Minor League counterparts, at least on a consistent basis. His mid-90-mph heater ends up in the outfield seats more often than he and Ventura would like. Chicago remains a club without a reliable ninth-inning option (apologies to veteran lefty Matt Thornton), and Reed returns to the Minors for more seasoning at Triple-A Charlotte. Ventura counts the days he’s gone.

Seven Prospect-related Things I Learned During The Arizona Fall League, An Inconclusive Wrap-Up on Championship Day Saturday

The first thing that should be said about how MLB.com produces its Arizona Fall League coverage is that, well, MiLB.com produces it. Yours truly is on a Minor Leagues-focused staff of about 15 editors, producers and reporters that shifts its focus to AFL action in October and November. We manage the official site of fall ball and about eight of us are the ones interviewing Saguaros or Desert Dogs or Javelinas postgame for the recaps you read with such delight. We make those calls and writes these stories from New York, about 2,500 miles east of the six participating teams and their homes, but we still have the pulse of the league and its developments.

Will all that out of the way, here are, in no particular order, seven prospects-related things I learned this fall:

1. THAT the clubs with the best prospects don’t win the most games. Nick Castellanos, Jonathan Singleton, Javier Baez, and George Springer (all ranked 48th or higher among MLB.com’s Top 100) led the Mesa Solar Sox to a league-worst 10-20 record. Who led the Peoria Javelinas to their league-best 19-13 mark? One Nate Roberts!

2. THAT Roberts, who batted .446 in 19 games, maybe, kind of, sort of deserves to be called a prospect at this point.

3. THAT, despite my speculation, Billy Hamilton, did not in fact break another league’s stolen base record this calendar year. He racked up 10 steals in 17 games, one fewer than league leader Carlos Sanchez (Reds) and 14 fewer than the all-time record. 

4. THAT Hamilton, speaking of the Stolen Base King, can make a catcher (in this case, Yankees farmhand Austin Romine) say Goddamn after stealing second base on a foot-first slide — then make that same catcher just stare down at dirt after stealing third base on the catcher’s post-pitch toss back to the mound. (Fast-forward to the 00:31 mark of this video for that doozy.)

5. THAT the Yankees’ Slade Heathcott, while not nearly as fast as Hamilton, plays ball the hard-nosed, bull-headed way — the right way.

6. THAT if a Fall Leaguer is traded by his Major League organization to another Major League organization, he will switch teams almost immediately. In the case of A’s-turned-D-backs-turned-Marlins infielder Yordy Cabrera, however, he went from the A’s-affiliated Phoenix Desert Dogs straight to the Marlins-affiliated … Phoenix Desert Dogs. He didn’t even have to change ballcaps!

7. THAT, speaking of fast things, I wasn’t wrong (perhaps) to write that Heath Hembree owned the fastest fastball in the Fall League. I saw him hit a radar gun at just 90 mph in one appearance, but he appeared to be throwing much harder in the Rising Stars Showcase, no?

Lost and Found: Halfway Done Identifying A Prospect in Every Minor League System

Editor’s note: Lost and Found is an offseason series in which one underrated prospect from each of the 30 MLB clubs will be discussed in a short, snappy post.

In  case you’ve missed one edition of the series, here is a complete list of those already done. Sixteen down, 14 to go.

Anything you want to see done differently with this, let me know in the comment section. 

Lost and Found: Red Sox Prospect Michael Almanzar, A Late Bloomer with A Long Swing

Editor’s note: Lost and Found is an offseason series in which one underrated prospect from each of the 30 MLB clubs will be discussed in a short, snappy post.

Lost: Signed out of his native Dominican Republic as a shortstop in July 2007, Michael Almanzar averaged 101 games played over the first four years of his pro career, 2008-11. But he also batted .229 overall during that span.

Found: In his fifth Minor League season (second in the Class A Advanced Carolina League) this year, the righty-hitting third baseman/first baseman Almanzar raised eyebrows by reaching base safely in 16 straight plate appearances in July. In total, he also did this:

2012: .300 AVG — .353 OBP — 48 XBH: 12 HR, 36 2B — 33-77 BB-K — 10-14 SB-ATT — 124 G at Class A Adv. Salem

So Almanzar was lost, now he is found. Now, about the Red Sox’s returns: Almanzar has long flashed tools, but he consistently showed his skills in ’12. He still hasn’t played at Double-A and will likely begin next season there, which isn’t huge problem given that he turns 22 on Dec. 2. Whether he reports to Double-A Portland, the Red Sox’s affiliate, is another conversation altogether. See, because it took Almanzar five years just to find himself, he will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 6 at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. To protect him from the proceedings, Boston’s brass would have to put him on its 40-man roster (which has only once vacancy at the moment) by next Tuesday, Nov. 20. If GM Ben Cherington and Co. elect to hold onto Almanzar, what exactly will they be keeping? A decent corner infielder with a potentially strong bat and gap-to-gap power. Potentially being the key word. Almanzar’s .195 batting average in the Arizona Fall League (entering his Surprise Saguaros’ season finale this afternoon) hasn’t completely quieted concerns about this lanky late bloomer and his still-too-long swing.

(Jordan Megenhardt/MiLB.com)

Prospect Trade: Why The Blue Jays Made Out So Well (and The Marlins Didn’t)

During my most recent workday here at MiLB.com on Saturday, I wrote about some top prospects that could be traded as we near next month’s Winter Meetings in Nashville. I mentioned about 10 names and … none of them were Blue Jays.

Well, the joke is on me.

Jake Marisnick (Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com)

If you haven’t already heard, this was our first major offseason trade involving talented Minor Leaguers, which was first broken by Fox Sports’ Morosi/Rosenthal team on Twitter last (Tuesday) night.

Blue Jays get: Veterans Jose Reyes (shortstop), Josh Johnson (righty starter), Mark Buehrle (lefty starter), Emilio Bonifacio (utility man) and John Buck (catcher).

Marlins get: Veteran Yunel Escobar (shortstop), rookie Henderson Alvarez (righty starter) and prospects Jake Marisnick (center fielder), Justin Nicolino (lefty starter), Anthony DeSclafani  (righty starter) and Adeiny Hechavarria (shortstop).

My colleague, Ashley Marshall (AshMarshallMLB), wrote a thorough recap of the deal for our site. I volunteer now to offer some prospects-oriented analysis.

Simply put (and not giving much consideration to the Major League veterans exchanged and committed money that changed hands, both of which are beyond my scope): The Blue Jays made out well.

Here is why: Yes, they yielded three of their top seven prospects, but none are what we would call blue-chip or elite-level prospects and Toronto’s system sports the depth to simply replace them. Let’s take these guys one at a time:

Player 1: Marisnick, who hasn’t produced consistent results above low-A, has yet to prove he can be an above-average hitter. The 2009 third-round draftee has quieted some concerns with his .837 OPS through 19 Arizona Fall League games, but he remains very much a work-in-progress in the batter’s box. His defensive and base-running skills were more impressive in 2012.

Replacements: Anthony Gose was ahead of Marisnick on the depth chart anyway, and recent draftees D.J. Davis and Anthony Alford could catch up in the next year or so.

Player 2: Nicolino, a third of that Lansing trio, was pretty flawless in ’12, posting a 2.46 ERA in 28 games (22 starts) while sporting a 119-21 K-BB ratio. But if we’re looking for flaws, here is one: Unlike former rotation mates Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez, Nicolino doesn’t have blow-by, dominating stuff, as evidenced by his opponents’ .246 batting average. Nicolino does have very good stuff (fastball, curveball and plus changeup), he strikes me as the kind of guy who will be more limited (than Syndergaard and Sanchez) when he competes against Class A Advanced, Double-A, Triple-A and Major League hitters. Remember, he hasn’t faced any of them yet.

Replacements: In addition to Syndergaard and Sanchez, the Jays have Sean Nolin, Deck McGuire and John Stilson coming along as well as younger hurler-in-training Roberto Osuna. That still leaves ’11- and ’12-drafted lefty starters Daniel Norris and Matthew Smoral, both of whom have a chance to be as good as or better than Nicolino in the future.

Player 3: Hechavarria is among the best fielding shortstops in baseball (and no slouch as a base-stealer), but the Jays weren’t sold enough on his hit tool to install him as the long-term response to Escobar’s inevitable exit.

Replacements: In addition to the former Met Reyes, who may not finish his current contract in Toronto (the guess here is that he won’t), the Jays front office is very high on unranked farmhand Ryan Goins. Despite the fact that Goins has not played above Double-A — he posted a .289/.342/.403 line 136 games there last year — he is now seen as the heir apparent at the position.

So … you get my drift? The Jays did yield three good prospects (four if you include 2011 sixth-round draftee DeSclafani, who I’m not all that high on) but none are irreplaceable. 

I would also add this: The Toronto organization All-Stars piece I filed recently (and which will run the middle of next month) did not include any of the four Jays-turned-Marlins. It just so happens that Gose (outfield, over Marisnick), Nolin (lefty starter, over Nicolino), Goins (shortstop, over Hechavarria) and Syndergaard (right starter, over DeSclafani) all made the list.

That softens the blow of my last, short-sighted blog post. A little bit anyway.

Justin Nicolino (Mark LoMoglio/MiLB.com).

Looking Ahead: Which Prospects Could Be Traded This Winter?

Put this on your hot stove and cook it: We are still three weeks from baseball’s Winter Meetings and already the names of Minor League prospects — not just Major League players — are being bandied about as trade bait.

This is the world we live in — a world in which national, rumor-mongering ball writers and fans are growing increasingly savvy about not only teams’ complete 25-man roster, but their 40-man and beyond. If you’re anything like them, you’re also highly aware of many of your team’s Top 20 Prospects, guys who are perhaps years from getting to the bigs.

Will Chris Archer be traded for a third time this offseason? (Matt Burton/MiLB.com)

Which explains why there are already talks about the Reds potentially moving shortstop Didi Gregorius, the D-backs maybe (but probably not) parting with pitcher Trevor Bauer, among other ideas (that’s all they really are at this point) about clubs shipping off untested twenty-somethings.

So jumping in on the speculation? Don’t mind if I do. In fact, the next piece I will be working on for MiLB.com will focus on what type of “prospect packages” Major League execs need to be presented with to end, say, the Justin Upton Era in Arizona or the Jacoby Ellsbury Era in Boston.

As much interest as there is in prospects, however, it is still the the established Major League player that is the conversation-starter. The Red Sox would call the Giants to initiate Ellsbury-for-Gary Brown talks — it’s very unlikely such a deal would come about the other way around.

With that fact in mind, I present a list of prospects who could be moved based on their respective organizations’ depth (irrespective of their rumored interest in a big-time big leaguer like, say, the Rays’ James Shields or the Indians’ Asdrubal Cabrera because such interest is more likely to be rumored than real). Here are guys who are potentially expendable if their teams want to trade up this offseason:

Tampa Bay Rays – Starting pitcher Chris Archer or Alex Colome – Some would have you believe that GM Andrew Friedman needs to trade Shields or fellow vet starter David Price before their price tag gets out of hand, but Shields has club-friendly options through 2014, and it will be difficult to get equal value for Price. Friedman’s shortcut: Deal Archer or Colome and still have more than enough pitching both in the bigs and the pipeline.

Oakland A’s – Infielder Grant Green – The A’s are not in the habit of trading Major League-quality hitters with zero Major League service time, but this is a unique case. GM Billy Beane and brass need a shortstop and, by their own evaluations, Green is a below-average defender there. This is why they have tried Green in center field (unsuccessful), third base (ehh) and, most recently, second base (adequate). It’s all well and good that Green could be a good utility man, but his bat is too good to not play everyday. Swapping him for a player the A’s do deem a two-way player at short (Gregorius?) would seem to make the most sense.

Seattle Mariners – Infielder Nick Franklin or Stefen Romero –The M’s have and like Dustin Ackley at second and, apparently, don’t see Franklin as a strong enough defender at shortstop. (Another prospect, Brad Miller, who will begin next season at Double-A, could be the long-term solution there.) That leaves Franklin and, to a lesser degree, Romero (who could move to third base) stuck behind Ackley. For all the talk about dealing lefty starter James Paxton, why not keep their potential super-rotation intact.

More musings: If the Rangers deal a shortstop this winter, expect it to be Class A slick fielder Luis Sardinas. … If the Braves decide they can spend to resign catcher Brian McCann past the 2013 season, that would make defensive-minded backstop Christian Bethancourt expendable. … Speaking of catchers, the Marlins could deal J.T. Realmuto given the show Rob Brantly put on this year. … If the cash-poor Mets can reach an extension agreement third baseman David Wright, Wilmer Flores could be a casualty. … What do the Nats do with Anthony Rendon, a plus defender at third base, with face-of-the-franchise Ryan Zimmerman signed through 2019. Rendon, Washington’s top pick in 2011, will likely begin ’13 at Double-A and isn’t far from Show-ready. … Even if the D-backs don’t give up on Upton, it would seem logical to include A.J. Pollock in an offseason deal. He’s not in the team’s plans the way that Adam Eaton is.

Lost and Found: Braves Prospect Juan Jaime

Editor’s note: Lost and Found is an offseason series in which one underrated prospect from each of the 30 MLB clubs will be discussed in a short, snappy post.

Lost: Originally signed by the Nationals as a 17-year-old out of his native Dominican Republic, Juan Jaime pitched in a combined 42 games over his first four seasons as a pro. Then he missed all of the 2010 and 2011 campaigns due to ligament-replacement surgery in his right (throwing) elbow.

Found: Jaime pitched in exactly 42 more games — all in 2012.  And he was good in most of them.

2012: 3.16 ERA — 18 SV — 51 1/3 IP — 73-33 K-BB — .173 OPP .AVG at Class A Advanced Lynchburg

So Jaime was lost, now he is found. Now, about the Braves’ returns: First, you may be wondering why a pitcher who couldn’t stay healthy for six years still had a job to go. This should answer that: Jaime can throw his fastball 100 mph. Can being the operative word. He has to be healthy to prove what he is capable of. He was just that in ’12, even if it was during his age-25 season facing Carolina League hitters three and four years younger than him. And as you can as see from his relatively high walk total, he still has some developing to do. The Braves appear willing to let him, having added him to their 40-man roster this week to avoid making him a Minor League free agent. Now his organization’s No. 18 prospect, Jaime will begin ’13 at Double-A Mississippi but could move to Triple-A Gwinnett quickly should he prove healthy and effective. If he is both of those things going forward, Washington may regret giving up on what appears to be the second coming of their own Henry Rodriguez, as Jaime could be a late-inning option in Atlanta by the latter half of next season at the earliest.

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