October 2012
A Prospect (Q&A) Roll Call
You deserve the truth. Here it is. Many of my MiLB editorial colleagues and I (at least, those of us willing to admit it) actually look forward to the offseason. Don’t get me wrong. We love baseball as much as you do. But after six months of ballgames… well, you get the picture.
Trayce Thompson (By Roger Peterson).
But we also look forward to the offseason — at least, I do, and I can only speak for myself — because this time gives us a chance to spend time reporting on prospects we perhaps missed during the season, when things are undoubtedly busier. One of the vehicles for this reporting is our recurring “Prospect Q&A” feature (previously called “Ten Questions with…”
I like this story format because it’s done in a casual, conversational form but can still yield quality content. I use it as an opportunity to test my educated opinion, too, on who might be among the next great group of prospects. How did I do last year in identifying these guys? Here are the seven I wrote around this time last year:
- Prospect Q&A: Carpenter’s trade-off – 03/19/12 — Cubs-turned-Red Sox right-hander Chris Carpenter told me he was “startled to learn he was “traded” for Boston-turned-Chicago exec Theo Epstein … then he missed the first half of the season after undergoing minor surgery on his throwing elbow but finished the season in the Red Sox’s bullpen.
- Prospect Q&A: Doolittle does more – 03/05/12 — A’s slugger-turned-pitcher Sean Doolittle told me had a “whole new energy for the game” after overcoming multiple injuries as a position player … then he dominated in the Minors, needing just 16 combined relief appearances at three levels before becoming the setup man for the American League West Division champ.
- Prospect Q&A: Hamilton a humble thief – 02/20/12 — The Reds’ Billy Hamilton told me about the baserunning advice he “stole” from Delino DeShields and Joe Morgan … then, in the wake of Mike Trout’s promotion to Majors, he became the Minors’ most exciting player and — oh, by the way — the single-season thefts record-holder.
- Prospect Q&A: ‘Reck’ turns to Langston – 02/06/12 — Angels top prospect-turned-forgotten farmhand Trevor Reckling told me former Halos hurler and fellow lefty Mark Langston was getting him back on track … then he struggled at the Class A Advanced level, was released and (despite his Twitter bio) appears unemployed.
- Prospect Q&A: Thompson has tools – 01/23/12 — The White Sox’s Trayce Thompson, the son and brother of NBA players, told me hadn’t yet scratched the surface of his athletic potential … then hit 25 home runs at age 21, finished the season at Triple-A after starting it at High-A and went from unranked to No. 1 on Chicago’s list.
- Prospect Q&A: Dominguez goes fishing – 01/09/12 — Marlins-turned-Astros third-baseman-of-the-future Matt Dominguez told me he needed to be a more consistent hitter … then, post-trade, he batted .298 at Triple-A and .284 in Houston to complement his gold glove-caliber defense on the hot corner.
- Prospect Q&A: Friedrich and free time – 12/05/11 — Rockies left-hander Christian Friedrich told me about escaping his offseason man cave to find a catch partner … then pitched well in his first five Triple-A starts before having a feast-or-famine 16-start campaign in Colorado.
OK, so I swung and missed on Carpenter and Reckling. But I’m pretty proud of that Doolittle-Hamilton-Thompson trio. Yeah, Hamilton was already a known quantity, having stole 103 bases in 2011, but Doolittle and Thompson really saw a spike in their value as prospects and ballplayers.
So who is next on my radar? Below is a list of MiLBers my colleagues and I are considering interviewing this winter for your reading enjoyment. My choices are denoted in italics.
Byron Buxton (By Roger Peterson).
Most important — this is the real reason for this blog post — is who is NOT on this list. Is there a prospect or two you’d like to see us catch up with November through March? If so, who and why? Use that ever-so-lonely comment section below, please.
- Matt Barnes (Red Sox)
- David Dahl (Rockies)
- Addison Russell (A’s)
- Byron Buxton (Twins)
- Josh Bell (Pirates)
- Michael Wacha (Cardinals)
- Max Kepler (Twins)
- Mike Zunino (Mariners)
- Richie Shaffer (Rays)
- Kolten Wong (Cardinals)
- Kevin Gausman (Orioles)
- Jorge Soler (Cubs)
- Jackie Bradley (Red Sox)
- George Springer (Astros)
- Dan Straily (A’s)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Tony Cingrani (Reds)
- Joe Panik (Giants)
- Christian Yelich (Marlins)
Lost and Found: Yankees Prospect Jose Ramirez
Editor’s note: Lost and Found is an offseason series in which one underrated prospect from each of the 30 MLB clubs will be discussed in a short, snappy post.
Lost: Signed at 17 out of his native Dominican Republic, Jose A. Ramirez got through his first three pro seasons OK before hitting a wall at more advanced levels in his fourth.
2011: 21 G — 21 GS — 5.66 ERA — .292 OPP .AVG — 12 HR — 99-to-43 K-BB — 103 1/3 IP at Class A Charleston/Class A Adv. Tampa
Found: It sounds too simple, but the right-hander, who sports a plus fastball (mid-90-mph) and a potentially-plus slider and changeup, kept the ball down in the strike zone in ’12.
2012: 21 G — 18 GS — 3.19 ERA — .239 OPP .AVG — 7 HR — 94-to-30 K-BB — 98 2/3 1/3 IP at Tampa
So Ramirez was lost, now he is found. Now, about the Yankees returns: Now 22 and the Yanks’ No. 13 prospect, Ramirez is looking more and more like a member of a Major League rotation. He’s very likely two more full seasons away from that — and probably not more than a No. 3/4 starter when he gets there — but that’s a lot of value. Even in New York.
Cliff Welch / MiLB
Lost and Found: Orioles Prospect Mike Belfiore
Editor’s note: Lost and Found is an offseason series in which one underrated prospect from each of the 30 MLB clubs will be discussed in a short, snappy post.
Lost: A first-round draftee of the Arizona D-backs in 2009, Mike Belfiore enjoyed a solid, if underwhelming, first full season in 2010. By 2011, however, it had become clear to Arizona’s brass that his struggles as a starter could be alleviated with a shift to the bullpen.
Ricky Bassman/MiLB.com
2011: 35 G — 8 GS — 5.92 ERA — .278 OPP .AVG — 17 HR – 79-to-57 K-to-BB – 79 IP at Class A Advanced Visalia
Found: Belfiore began 2012 back in the Cal League and in a relief role. He was then traded to Baltimore to complete a trade for infielder Josh Bell.
2012: 40 G — 0 GS — 2.71 ERA — .228 OPP .AVG – 4 HR – 78-to-26 K-to-BB – 66 1/3 IP at Visalia/Double-A Bowie
So Belfiore was lost, now he is found. Now, about the Orioles’ returns: Belfiore, who also relieved at Boston College, everyone can now agree is best suited for that role going forward. A dramatic dip in homers allowed and a significant rise in K/IP demonstrate this fact. The 24-year-old lefty, now the O’s 14th-ranked prospect, has the ability to command a plus heater-slider combo (and the opportunity to refine his changeup and curveball on the side) without worrying about going through an opposing lineup a second and third time. Does he have the stuff and mentality to close games in the Majors? Maybe, maybe not. This much is more certain: He will pitch in the big leagues and be useful there.
Is Josh Bowman the Oakland Athletics’ Next Dan Straily?
These are some of the first things you learn about Minor League Baseball: Every Major League Baseball club has, on average, seven affiliates. Each of these affiliates, from Triple-A on down to the Dominican Summer League, are stocked with 12, or very likely much more than 12, pitchers. And this group of pitchers, naturally, has a pitching coach. So that is, on average, seven pitching coaches assigned to instruct dozens and dozens of pitchers.
So who the heck is the roving pitching coordinator? Every Major League Baseball club has one or more of these, too.
Shawn E. Davis/MiLB.com
I found that out for sure this week when speaking with the A’s Gil Patterson, who is charged to collaborate with each of Oakland’s uniformed coaches to develop hurlers, all at different stages in their development. I was asking Patterson about one of his older pet projects, that 24th-round draftee that became the Minors’ strikeout leader (for a story about MiLBY [staff pick] award winner Dan Straily, which will be published on Oct. 31). But I also couldn’t help but ask Patterson, a former pitcher himself, who the next Dan Straily is.
Of course, there is no next Dan Straily. But in an organization that has been pitching-rich since (and certainly before) the Hudson-Zito-Mulder days, there is going to be another underrated, counted-out forgotten man who will start a season at Double-A and burn his own path to the Majors as Straily did — isn’t there?
I figured my hypothetical question was unanswerable. I posed it anyway, and Patterson didn’t hesitate to answer. ”I wouldn’t be surprised to see Josh Bowman do the same thing, but it would be difficult to repeat [what Straily accomplished],” he said. “[Bowman] struggled early on this year and then reeled off 15 straight [quality] games. He was 4 1/3 [innings] and 4 1/3 and then seven, seven, seven, seven and you’re like, ‘Whoa.’”
Which got me wondering whether Bowman should be on our radar in a way that Straily was not entering this past season? Straily wasn’t a ranked prospect entering 2012, and Bowman isn’t entering ’13…
Let’s go to the numbers:
Straily at Class A Advanced Stockton in 2011: 28 G — 26 GS — 160 2/3 IP — 3.87 ERA — 154-to-40 K-to-BB — .260 OPP .AVG — .323 BABIP
Bowman at Class A Advanced Stockton in ’12: 25 G — 25 GS — 146 2/3 IP — 3.62 ERA — 127-to-33 K-to-BB — .270 OPP .AVG — .323 BABIP
Uh, yeah, I see a similarity. Do you?
If not, here are some more: Straily and Bowman are both right-handed, stand 6-foot-2 and sit in the low-90-mph range with their fastballs. They are three months apart in age, played for non-powerhouse colleges and weren’t regarded highly in the Draft; Bowman was drafted one year after Straily but 14 rounds before him. Is he just one year behind?
Straily at Midland (AA)/Sacramento (AAA) in ’12: 25 G — 25 GS — 152 IP — 2.78 ERA — 190-to-42 K-to-BB — .202 OPP .AVG
Bowman at Midland (AA) in ’13: ???
Photo Courtesy of Sean Kahler.
Lost and Found: Twins Prospect Max Kepler
Editor’s note: Lost and Found is an offseason series in which one underrated prospect from each of the 30 MLB clubs will be discussed in a short, snappy post. The more obvious choices in Minnesota’s system include upper-echelon prospects Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson, who enjoyed bounce-back/healthy campaigns this year, but you have already heard of them. Have you heard of…
Lost: Max Kepler, a raw, speed-oriented outfielder, received an $800,000 bonus (a European record) to leave his native Germany at 16 in 2009, “hid out” in the Gulf Coast League at 17 in ’10 before playing short-season ball in ’11. He is the kind of guy that, scouts say, “looks good in a uniform.”
2011: .262 AVG, 15 XBH — 1 HR, 24 RBI, 23–to–54 K-to-BB ratio, 1 SB in 50 G at Rookie-level Elizabethton
Found: According to reports, Kepler has lost some of his speed but more than made up for it by flashing increased skills with the bat, leading some to believe that he can hit and hit for power. The Justin Morneau comparison has already been made.
2012: .297 AVG, 31 XBH — 10 HR, 49 RBI, 27-to-33 K-to-BB ratio, 7 SB in 59 G at Rookie-level Elizabethton
So Kepler was lost, now he is found. Now, about the Twins’ returns: I’m stretching it a little in saying Kepler was ever “lost.” More accurately, he is under the radar. We live in a world of baseball where guys like Bryce Harper and Jurickson Profar can get to the Majors before their 20th birthdays and Kepler, while he has a high ceiling too, is more of an old-school 19-year-old in that he probably has three to four more years of developing to do. He doesn’t have a defensive position yet (CF? LF? 1B?), and he is still learning how to play American baseball. As it stands, he is his organization’s 18th-ranked prospect. Time (in full-season ball) will tell whether he keeps moving up that list.
Lost and Found: Royals Prospect Christian Colon
Editor’s note: Lost and Found is an offseason series in which one underrated prospect from each of the 30 MLB clubs will be discussed in a short, snappy post.
Lost: Christian Colon was the fourth overall pick in the 2010 Draft (out of baseball powerhouse Cal-State Fullerton) and was perceived to be Kansas City’s shortstop of the future. Then he was promoted (aggressively, I might add) to play his first full season in the Texas League, where hitters say that while 1) the ballparks and weather are hitter-friendly, 2) the repetition of opponents makes the circuit a constant series of adjustments against advanced pitching.
2011: .257 AVG, .325 OBP, 24 XBH, 17 SB in 127 G at Double-A Northwest Arkansas
Found: With expectations lowered, the not-so-toolsy Colon returned to the TL, overcame two freak injuries (injuring his foot while stepping on a bat and fouled a ball off his face) before finishing the campaign at Triple-A Omaha.
2012: .301 AVG, .376 OBP, 21 XBH, 13 SBs in 85 G across three levels
So Colon was lost, now he is found. Now, about the Royals’ returns: Colon will be 24 a week after Opening Day 2013, when he will likely be back at Omaha, one hot streak/trade/injury from making his Major League debut. And while the righty-hitting, righty-throwing Puerto Rico native won’t be a star, he can definitely be a productive star-ter. That’s more than we could say 12 months ago.
(Shawn E. Davis/MiLB.com)
Jays’ d’Arnaud Has Work to Do Behind (Not So Much, At) The Plate
(Steve Spatafore/51s)
Do you want the good news first, or the bad?
The good news: Travis d’Arnaud hit for .333 in 2012.
The bad news: Travis d’Arnaud threw for .300 in 2012.
Let me explain.
The Toronto Blue Jays office is in a frenzy this week. The instructional league is ending, and logistical stuff is getting done. It’s busy. But one baseball ops staffer took some time with me over the phone this afternoon, and I came away with a couple conclusions about d’Arnaud, the organization’s top-ranked prospect and presumptive catcher of the future.
The first conclusion: d’Arnaud, whom the Jays acquired from the Phils way back in 2009, is one heck of an offensive threat. Even more of a threat at age 23 and in his first Triple-A season than Toronto’s brass could hope for. The righty swinger not only recorded a hit once every three ABs — he also racked up 16 homers and 21 doubles before his season ended prematurely because of a torn posterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. (The injury was supposed to cost him eight weeks of action, but he missed the entire second half of the season. I’m told that he is now 100 percent healthy, so don’t read too much into his absence from the Arizona Fall League).
The second conclusion: d’Arnaud, while adept at the plate, is far from a finished product behind it. The front office member I spoke with said d’Arnaud needed to and would, with experience, improve his 1) game-calling, 2) leadership (“taking charge” of a rotation), and 3) throwing consistency.
1) and 2) are hard for me to quantify because I’m not a scout with inside access to the clubhouse in Triple-A Las Vegas, where d’Arnaud spent last season (or the newly-affiliated Triple-A Buffalo, where he will, barring an injury or trade involving incumbent J.P. Arencibia, begin next season.)
3), however, I can at least scratch the surface on. Past scouting reports indicate the backtop’s strength and athleticism. And stats can point to whether he is turning his natural gifts (tools) into measured production (skills). Here are some of those numbers from ’12:
55 games at catcher
.991 fielding percentage
4 errors
6 passed balls
40 stolen-base attempts against him
28 successful stolen-base attempts
12 failed stolen-base attempts
.300 caught-stealing percentage
There’s that .300 number again. They say that baseball is a game in which you can fail seven times out of 10 and still be considered successful. This refers to hitting, however, not limiting the oppositions running game. So let’s put it this way:
.700 success rate for opposing would-be base stealers
That’s high. For a comparison: High Desert’s John Hicks registered the lowest such rate (.462) among full-season-affiliated catchers who were tested by 40 or more attempts. And three others, Northwest Arkansas’ Manny Pina and Quad Cities’ Casey Rasmus as well as Winston-Salem’s Miguel Gonzalez, recorded sub.-500 rates.
But those guys are the cream of the crop. Allow PROSPECTive to add greater PERspective: Of only Pacific Coast Leaguer catch-and-throwers, a group that includes d’Arnaud, 10 finished this past season with more success nabbing thiefs.
- Anthony Recker — Sacramento — 44 ATT — .523
- Carlos Corporan — Oklahoma City — 63 ATT — .556
- Ryan Budde — Reno — 40 ATT — .575
- Tim Federowicz — Albuquerque — 84 ATT — .607
- Landon Powell — Oklahoma City — 74 ATT — .608
- Cody Clark — Omaha — 54 ATT — .611
- Eli Whiteside — Fresno — 69 ATT — .638
- Dusty Brown — Round Rock — 53 ATT — .642
- Martin Maldonado — Nashville — 40 ATT — .675
- Derek Norris — Sacramento — 57 ATT — .684
- Travis d’Arnaud — Las Vegas — 40 ATT — .700
So what does all this tell us? d’Arnaud was the 11th-hardest catcher to steal from in a 16-team league because of one, or more likely, a combination of factors: His arm is strong but inaccurate, his instincts are off, his pitchers were slow to home plate, he wasn’t “handling” his pitchers.
So the take-away here is not earth-shattering: Like most young catchers (and it should be pointed out that most of the above 10 are not young), d’Arnaud’s bat is well ahead of his glove. Will it catch up? I can only tell you that it likely will. The stats — and intercountry phone conversations — only tell us so much.
(Steve Spatafore/51s)
Lost and Found: Tigers(-turned-Cubs) Prospect Marcelo Carreno
Editor’s note: Lost and Found is an offseason series in which one underrated prospect from each of the 30 MLB clubs will be discussed in a short, snappy post. This edition features a prospect who was traded on Tuesday.
Lost: Josue Marcelo Carreno (you will more often see him referred to as Marcelo Carreno) signed out of his native Venezuela at 16. He registered sub-3.00 ERAs in Venezuelan Summer League play in 2008 and 2009 before recording 4.00-plus ERAs his first two seasons stateside.
2010: 4.76 ERA and a 59-to-33 K-to-BB ratio in 64 1/3 IP spanning 14 GS at Class A Short-Season Connecticut
2011: 4.55 ERA and a 115-to-41 K-to-BB ratio in 124 2/3 IP spanning 24 G at Class A West Michigan
Found: Carreno, who sports a fastball-curveball-changeup mix, returned to the same level and accomplished two things: He walked 13 fewer batters in 14 2/3 more innings. While that may not sound like a lot, it is for a hurler like him who must pitch to contact to get outs.
2012: 3.23 ERA and a 119-to-28 K-to-BB ratio in 139 1/3 IP spanning 27 GS at Class A West Michigan
So Carreno was lost, now he is found. Now, about the Tigers’ Cubs’ returns: Word on the street is that Carreno tops out as a No. 3 starter and bottoms out as a middle reliever. Either way, Chicago is getting a future Major League pitcher. Given that we’re talking about a 21-year-old who has yet to pitch at the Class A Advanced level, however, I would stretch the space between his ceiling and his floor a bit more. Look for the righty to begin 2013 at Daytona, in the Florida State League.
Marcelo Carreno, with Class A West Michigan (Emily Jones/MiLB.com).
Emptying My Notebook: Quotes of Note on Jake Odorizzi, Michael Choice and Tommy Joseph
- Royals assistant GM J.J. Piccolo said third-ranked prospect Jake Odorizzi proved he has all the necessary stuff in 2012: “He showed excellent command of his fastball, really started to be able to throw his breaking ball — he throws a curveball and a slider — early in the count and that made his fastball more effective; he struck out a lot of guys with his fastball. And his changeup continued to develop.” (For more on his repertoire, see Odorizzi’s Prospect Pitch.)
- A’s player development director Keith Lieppman is excited about the future of No. 1 prospect Michael Choice, who played just 91 games this season after fracturing his hand: ”Choice is a big-time potential Major League player. He started to figure things out at [Double-A] Midland and was playing very good defense. Once he figures things out [offensively], his tools will take over. He is not far from the big leagues and [in addition to the power] can steal 15-20 bases once he gets there.”
- Phillies fourth-ranked prospect Tommy Joseph, who has played four Arizona Fall League games as of this writing, on his hitting philosophy, “I need to have a plan when I go up there to hit. I have to put myself in a position athletically and, whatever is happening at the time, hit to the situation: move the guy over, get the ball up the middle to get an RBI. I always like to know how hard the [pitcher] throws and what’s his out-pitch because obviously you’re going to see an out-pitch at a key point in the game. Those are really the two things that I want to know: if he comes at me with his fastball, with his breaking ball, if he likes to pitch backwards, little things without going in depth — keep it as simple as possible.”
Tommy Joseph, with Double-A Reading (Ralph Trout).
A’s Exec: Things Appear Brighter for A’s Prospect Sonny Gray
A’s 2011 first-round draftee and seventh-ranked prospect Sonny Gray is pitching in Arizona, but not in the Fall League for elite-level prospects of his ilk — rather, the Instructional League for prospects who, you know, need some instruction.
Sonny Gray, with the Midland RockHounds in 2010 (Shawn E. Davis/MiLB.com).
When Oakland selected Gray, a three-year vet at baseball powerhouse Vanderbilt, two Junes ago, it was thought that he would need to change little on his quick path to the Major Leagues.
One and a half seasons in the Minors later, that path seems to be windier than scouts first imagined. Here is how the 22-year-old righty fared in 2012 after his spectacular six-start, post-Draft showing in ’11:
6-9 W-L, 4.26 ERA, 99 K, 58 BB, .271 OPP AVG in 152 IP spanning 27 G at Double-A Midland (26) and Triple-A Sacramento (1)
So what has the already-pitching-rich Athletics pumped about Gray’s future despite those sub-par stats: 1) His 3.54 ERA after the All-Star break; 2) His six strong innings in Game 1 of the Pacific Coast League semifinal series; 3) And, lately, his commitment to getting better.
My source on all this: Longtime A’s player development director Keith Lieppman, who flew into Phoenix on Friday and took my call this morning, champing at the bit to talk about Gray: ”He didn’t have a great year, but he’s made some real, big strides in Instructional League. He is on the rise right now. There were a couple mechanical things to work out and, in so doing, put him in better position… A lot of times, competitors don’t want to make too many adjustments during the season, but this gives him an opportunity. The new delivery will benefit him next year… He’s on target with his direction [and] his foot-strike [to] keep him on line better. He tends to over-rotate, and that wasn’t good position for him to stay consistent.”
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